Coronavirus Triggered Deaths in India — A Partial Validation of “Malthusian Catastrophe”
With more than 18.37 million confirmed COVID cases ,approximately 2 lakh deaths in India and 3 cores active cases of COVID in India (as of April 29,2021), India seems to have got trapped in what is known as “Malthusian Trap/Catastrophe”.
An eminent English Clergyman of 18th Century Thomas Malthus postulated in his book titled “An Essay on the Principles of Population” that geometric progression(i.e.1,2,4,8,16, — -etc.) of population will outstrip ‘arithmetical progression(i.e.1,2,3,4 — -etc.) of food production giving rise to an imbalance. This imbalance should be either corrected voluntarily through preventive checks like adoption of birth controls to check population growth rate or nature will come to the rescue of man by bringing into operation the positive checks ( like fatal diseases, earthquakes, famines, floods, cyclones etc.), which are cruel and bad.
With 1.39 billion population, India is the second most populated country in the world, next only to China. But even with record production of 303 million food grains (in 2020–21 crop year), India cannot claim itself to be a food secure country. ‘Paradox of poverty amidst plenty’, lower per capita availability of resources, undernourishment of population (14% in 2017–19), over-burdened infrastructure are enough to indicate imbalances of resources (food and others) which Malthus posited. The preventive checks were put in place 6 decades back in the form of ‘National Family Planning Programme’ in 1952. But the population growth rate continues to be quite high after several decades and we are likely to overtake China in 2050 as per one estimate. Even if the problem of food grains production is resolved with technological interventions, the persistence of the problem of lack of purchasing power in the hands of people will not let the serious hunger crisis to be over. Undeniably, the Malthusian theory of imbalances between resources and population growth stands validated albeit partially in case of India. Not only this even the positive checks operated off and on in India over the years such as Bengal famine of 1943 to Latur Earthquake of 1993 to Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami of 2004 and Flashfloods of Uttarkashi in 2013 to mention a few of them. More recently, this COVID-19 pandemic has caused huge devastation with the stranglehold of death, distress and despair all around, once again validating “Malthusian Catastrophe”.
Malthus seemingly understood well the finiteness of resources (food grains as well as technological), though contrarians may hold opposite viewpoints. The Mother Nature has given many warning signals in the last two decades in the form of positive checks like famines, earthquakes, cyclones etc. which strike a chord with what Malthus propagated. But lack of seriousness and will in putting in place response strategies for correcting imbalances seems to have brought another positive check in the form of ‘COVID-19 Tsunami’ in operation by Nature. This time fury is much more and the impact has been widespread. No state small or big, no region, rural or urban has been left untouched. This pandemic seems to be an environmental (Malthusian positive check) check to decongest the earth or to ‘depopulate’ it appears to be working. This seems to be a warning signal to human beings that their intrusion into nature (by invading habitats and ruining eco-systems) must stop now which is currently happening through deforestation, illegal mining and wildlife poaching and trade. This calls for conservation and protection of forests and our bio-diversity which act as a “natural anti-virus. Apparently, any further pressure on Mother Nature will expose us to the risks of ‘zoonosis’ and that of ‘bush meat i.e. “the so called process of spillover process” — the reason behind the ongoing pandemic. Therefore, “the pandemic represents a rare but narrow window of opportunity to reflect, reimagine, and reset our world”. It is a wake-up call for us to rethink and recreate a healthier, more equitable, more sustainable and more prosperous world after sinking deeper down into this COVID triggered recession.
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Disclaimer: The views expressed here are solely those of the author.
Dr. Seema Joshi is Associate Professor of Economics, Kirori Mal College, University of Delhi, Delhi.
